Socio-economic crisis

The Venezuelan economy has consistently underperformed in recent years. The country’s GDP is projected to contract for the sixth consecutive year in 2019, bringing the cumulative decline to over 50 per cent. Hyperinflation, forecasted at 10,000,000 per cent, is crushing Venezuelan purchasing power. Today a family needs around $700 USD to cover their monthly basic household expenses but the minimum wage is less than $10 USD a month. In fact, most Venezuelans live below the international poverty line with less than $1 a day. Since 2014 products like milk, flour and soap are both difficult to find and costly.

Unsurprisingly, the poverty rate soared to 87 per cent in 2017. The scarcity and high price of food, on the rise since 2014, has accelerated in the past 18 months,  leading to undernourishment. Underweight newborns are not a novelty in hospitals as a tin of formula costs around $20 USD, equivalent to two months minimum wage. Government control of access to dollars has constrained domestic industries to various degrees as well, ushering out longstanding investments and sources of employment while severely limiting FDI. These controls, coupled with the nationalization of foreign assets, have also caused productivity to fall, domestic production of cereals has fallen to levels not seen since the 1980s. For example, the Spanish owned Agroislena, now Agropatria, went from being the leading supplier of seeds and fertilizer for the national agribusiness to a laggard.  In the Venezuelan economy, it is the government’s hand setting prices by decree and controlling who has access to dollars. Essentially, it is the state merged with the party who controls the economy rather than market forces. The decline of domestic oil production has significantly shrunk the cash available in the economy which has put pressure on the government to choose between importing food and medicines, reinvesting in the country or servicing sovereign debt. At the expense of the people, the government has prioritised paying international creditors.

Health services collapse

Health services, both public and private, have collapsed due to a lack of funds and economic restrictions. The government has a monopoly on the importation of vaccines, antiretrovirals, chemotherapy and other necessary supplies for effective healthcare. Venezuela was once a destination for medical tourism with decent facilities and well-educated specialists. Now, child and maternal mortality are among the highest in the continent. Preventable infections such as measles and diphtheria, which the country had controlled and, in some cases, eradicated decades ago, have resurfaced. The out-of-pocket medical expenses for Venezuelans keep rising, in part because of the development of a parallel market of medicines in which prices of medicine and healthcare supplies have quadrupled. People are having to smuggle pills and medical supplies from Brazil or Colombia informally, through family members or friends who are travelling. However, in the midst of this ordeal, some are privileged to be able to do this, as most Venezuelans does not have free access to foreign currency and has to rely on government imports to supply hospitals and pharmacies in the country. Since November 2016 the World Health Organization (WHO) has stepped up their technical cooperation with Venezuela and its neighbours to tackle this complex public health emergency. It is estimated that 14 per cent of medical staff specializing in infectious diseases have migrated, greatly weakening the health sector’s ability to combat disease. According to recent actions taken by the WHO, a Venezuelan NGO estimates that the country is experiencing a Grade 3 health emergency, the most severe by WHO standards and often reserved for countries that are impacted by armed conflicts, like Syria and Yemen.

Violence surge

Violence is another element adding to the complexity of the emergency. Venezuela ranks as the first country with the highest murder rate in Latin America. In 2017, 43 youth a day died a violent death. Kidnappings and extortion are common practices, often orchestrated from within prisons. However, a new category of crime emerged in recent months called hunger thefts. Burglars now take goods and food in addition to mobile phones or other valuables.

Mass migration

These elements have forced Venezuelans to migrate or seek asylum in other countries. Over 3 million people have left Venezuela, most have relocated to countries in the Americas. Such a figure is already the largest exodus in the recent history of Latin America and the number is projected to reach 5 million by the end of 2019, according to the UN.

Up close the figures are staggering: 800 Venezuelans cross the border to Brazil daily and 3000 do so to Colombia. In Boa Vista, a small Brazilian town near the border, Venezuelans now make up 10 per cent of the population. Further South, in Ecuador, more than 288,000 Venezuelans entered in 2017, some continued their journey to Peru, Chile and even Argentina– a route that can take up to two weeks by bus. So far, these countries have managed the large influx of migrants well, but, as expected, episodes of xenophobia have erupted in recently.

What makes the situation of Venezuela difficult to classify as a humanitarian emergency is, first, that it used to be an upper-middle income country with democratic traits, and, second, that it is a catastrophe not caused by armed conflict or natural disaster. There is no doubt, aid is needed at the moment to serve the most vulnerable sectors of the population: the sick, the emaciated, the elderly, pregnant women, children in hospitals and shelters. Recent actions taken by the interim president Juan Guaido, the coordinating of international actors to deliver aid, have caused Maduro and his allies to react with violence. While negating the humanitarian emergency and need for aid, Maduro promised to deliver boxes of food to those attending his concert on the Venezuelan side of the border, organised in parallel to the one in Cucuta, Colombia on February 23. Later he announced a shipment of aid arrived into the country through Russia. Although aid trucks were not allowed in on that day by Maduro-supporting military, Cucuta and Boa Vista continue to receive and serve as collection centres of aid in hopes of prompt delivery. In the long term, however, a country cannot run on humanitarian aid. Unpacking the complex humanitarian emergency in Venezuela and bringing the country afloat will not be a light endeavour.