A BLEAK FUTURE

MENA is the world’s most arid region and will continue to feel the impact of water scarcity for the foreseeable future. Of the 37 countries characterized by “extremely high” water distress levels, 15 are in the Middle East. With summer temperatures expected to increase by more than twice the global average, MENA’s limited water resources will be put to the ultimate test. Water stress in MENA has been steadily worsening over the last five decades — its per capita renewable water resources today are a quarter of what they were in 1950. Current predictions indicate that water resources in the region will continue to fall to 11 times below the global average by 2050.

Diminishing water resources and high temperatures have accelerated the rate of desertification and have led to a significant loss of arable land. In Syria, water scarcity and the gross mismanagement of existing resources have forced some 1.5 million farmers to abandon their land and move to the cities. Chronic drought has also left MENA dependent on food imports. Iraq, once a self-sufficient food producer, now imports 70 per cent of its food supply. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has become entirely reliant on grain imports in an effort to stave off water resource depletion.

RISING TENSIONS

According to NASA, the MENA region has been plagued by constant drought since 1998. It is important to note that these droughts are not solely climate-related. The Tigris and Euphrates Rivers which dominate Iraq’s Fertile Crescent are drying up. Since the mid-1970s, dams built upriver in neighbouring Syria, Turkey, and Iran have reduced the amount of water that Iraq receives by about half. Turkish dams on the Euphrates have cut the flow of water to Syria and Iraq by 40 and 80 per cent respectively. Facing accelerated desertification rates, Iraq stands to lose up to half—124 million acres—of its limited arable land.

Reduced freshwater resources have also allowed for saltwater to creep up the Shatt al-Arab waterway (known as ‘Arvand Rud’ in Persian), where the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers converge near the Persian Gulf, resulting in the destruction of rich agricultural land in southern Iraq. The depletion of Iraq’s water supply, along with elevating tensions with its neighbours, impedes Iraq’s economic recovery following decades of conflict.

Another man-made drought threatens to destabilize the Nile Basin. The Nile River – essential to Egypt’s agricultural needs – has lost much of its flow over the past few decades due to a combination of natural droughts and the construction of dams upriver. Ethiopia is currently in the process of constructing its Grand Renaissance Dam, which will be the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa. When completed, the dam will reduce the Nile’s flow by 25 per cent, interrupting water supplies to millions of Egyptians. Egypt has threatened military action following Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s declaration that the dam is a “matter of life and death” for his country.

THE BOILING POINT

Desperation breeds conflict. Water scarcity and rising temperatures in MENA will likely increase the potential for violent competition over dwindling resources in the coming years. Water scarcity was essential to the outbreak of Syria’s civil war. Between 2007 and 2015, severe drought and water shortages led to the death of 85 per cent of livestock and widespread crop failure in eastern Syria, prompting large-scale migration into overpopulated cities. By 2010, over 20 per cent of Syria’s urban population was composed of internally displaced persons. This mass displacement and subsequent unemployment were crucial components in triggering the unrest that escalated into civil war in 2011.

The U.S. military regards climate change as a “threat multiplier” within MENA. When people cannot meet their basic needs and there is fierce competition over what few resources remain, many will turn to those who offer quick solutions to their problems. Exploiting this sense of desperation, terror organizations have adopted the strategy of controlling water resources as a means of exerting influence over populations. A report by the German foreign office linked the effects of climate-induced drought to the growing power of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), stating that ISIS “tried to gain and retain legitimacy by providing water and other services to garner support from local populations.” ISIS recruiters have lured rural Syrians and Iraqis into their ranks with offers of money and food. Faced with the loss of their homes and livelihoods, many have accepted these economic incentives and joined the jihadist group.

The tactic of weaponizing water as a means of exerting control is not limited to ISIS. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen, Al-Shabaab in Somalia, and ISIS’s Libyan branch have all exploited water scarcity in their respective countries’ ongoing civil wars. In a country critically short of water, AQAP has built wells in areas it controls to win support from the local populations. By contrast, Al-Shabaab has adopted a slightly different tactic in Somalia. According to a member of the Somali parliament in 2014, Al-Shabaab had “started to cut off liberated cities from the water source so that they can demonstrate some kind of power and presence.” Similarly, ISIS has recognized the influence of water in Libya. Since losing their stronghold of Sirte, ISIS has launched attacks on the nearby Great Man-Made River Project – a station crucial for supplying cities on the Libyan coast with water pumped from the desert region to the south.

FINDING A SOLUTION

Governments within MENA and their international partners must address climate change and water scarcity before they can hope to effectively curtail extremism. Water stress conditions, as both a security and humanitarian concern, must be integrated into counterterrorism efforts. These at-risk states should focus on providing basic food and water resources to neglected rural communities in order to sustain the local economy. If water and food security is improved, it will be harder for extremist groups to garner support among local communities.

With temperatures expected to rise in the near-future, MENA countries must find ways of adapting to deal with the harsh realities of climate change. Climate resilience could be achieved through the diversification of crops. There must be a shift away from water-intensive irrigated crops to rain-fed agriculture like lentils and chickpeas. Significant investment in renewable energy is required for long-term stability in the region. Solar power in particular could provide rural communities with affordable energy that is more feasible in terms of water usage than hydroelectric dams. If crop diversification and renewable energy is not possible, states must develop contingency plans to provide other means of employment to rural communities threatened by climate change.