Brexit: Deal or no Deal?
The free movement of European labour has been a controversial issue in the United Kingdom. The U.K. public has been vocal in their belief that E.U. migrants are entering the U.K. and taking job opportunities away from British nationals. This anger informed discussions surrounding the U.K. leaving the E.U. As a result, “relentless” immigration to the U.K. was a hot topic during the 2016 Brexit referendum.
Some studies indicate that immigrants provide an economic benefit to the U.K., claiming they pay more in taxes than they cost in public services. However, this evidence was hardly mentioned as an argument for remaining in the E.U. during the Brexit campaign. In the wake of the referendum, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May delivered the message that would become her mantra: “Brexit means Brexit”.
The Brexit negotiations’ main goal was to control the freedom of movement and adopt a skills-based immigration policy. Finally, in November 2018, a 585-page-deal was agreed. If accepted by parliament, the U.K.’s Withdrawal Agreement would determine the rights of 3.5 million E.U. nationals currently living in the U.K. and 1.2 million U.K. nationals residing in E.U. countries.
The agreement was a failure for proponents of a hard Brexit, who want the U.K. to split from the E.U. with no deal at all. On December 14th, the agreement was opposed by more than a third of lawmakers in the U.K.. At the same time, E.U. leaders expressed that they are not willing to renegotiate the proposed deal; it is either this deal, no deal, or no Brexit at all. As the U.K. is poised to leave the E.U. on March 29th, 2019, the possibility that the U.K. will leave without a deal is becoming increasingly likely.
The difference between leaving with or without a deal is the difference between leaving with or without a transition period. In the event of a deal, the transition period would be from March 2019 to December 2020, so that every stakeholder has time to prepare for the new status quo. Parliament might also vote to extend the Brexit date, which means that the transition period could run past May 5th 2022, which is beyond May’s time in office. If there is no deal, Brexit will be instantaneous for every stakeholder this coming March. This means that the U.K. will begin implementing immigration control on E.U. nationals and vice versa. Also, U.K. nationals in E.U. countries will have to rely on the principle that permanent residence is automatically acquired after living in the E.U. for five years. However, those who do not qualify for permanent residence will be left with no protection and their future will be uncertain depending on their country of residence.
Many people have come to regret the outcome of the referendum and lawmakers within May’s own party tried to reverse it by holding a no confidence vote to remove her from power. The vote failed and Brexit preparations have continued. MPs will begin to debate May’s deal and the next vote will occur before January 21st. At this time, May must convince her opponents to support her deal as Brexit is becoming inevitable. Otherwise, the future of the U.K. will be highly uncertain, either the U.K. will exit without a deal or be forced to vote again to extend the exit date.
Brexit is nearly upon Europe. The U.K. can no longer afford the luxury of the internal debates and vitriol that has surrounded Brexit these past two years. Instead, lawmakers must put aside their differences and craft an agreement for the sake of Britain. Leaving with no deal will push the U.K. and its nationals into a state of uncertainty. Some of the foreseen scenarios of a no-deal Brexit are definitively worse than—as opponents say—a “bad deal”. It would be wise for all political parties and stakeholders to support May and her deal to secure the livelihood of U.K. and E.U. nationals domestically and abroad. Having a deal and bringing about a transition period is the U.K.’s best chance to develop its new independent status in a way that protects its economy while respecting what the U.K. public wants: independent control of immigration.