Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu—better known to the public as Bobi Wine—is a singer turned politician who is currently campaigning in Uganda’s January 2021 general election against President Yoweri Museveni, who has been in power for more than 30 years. 

Wine enjoys widespread popularity amongst a significant segment of the Ugandan population, which has allowed him to emerge as a strong challenger to Museveni since announcing his presidential bid on July 24, 2019. As a musician, many of Wine’s songs take a socially conscious tone by speaking out against poverty, and speaking up for freedom and democracy in Uganda. Wine grew up in one of the nation’s poorest neighborhoods in the capital city of Kampala. His rise from poverty to singing stardom, and his subsequent move into politics as an elected member of parliament, has been viewed as an inspiration to many of his followers who regard him as “the Ghetto President.”

Since Wine’s election as an MP in 2017, he has strongly opposed the authoritarian measures imposed by Museveni such as the decision to remove presidential term limits. Wine has also publicly rallied against the President’s decision to impose a social media tax to stifle opposition towards him on WhatsApp, Facebook, and Twitter. During this time, Wine also created a national movement called “People Power”—a movement consisting of, as the Economist describes, “a messy coalition of established politicians, frustrated graduates, and the hustlers of his ghetto hinterland.” The purpose of the movement is to bring awareness to Museveni’s improper governance and to challenge conventional politics. 

In response to Wine’s public demonstrations against Museveni, Wine has been subjected to state-sanctioned torture, repeated arrest, and more. In August 2018, allegedly on the orders of President Museveni, the Ugandan security forces fired live bullets into a crowd of Wine supporters, killed Wine’s personal driver, then invaded the hotel that Wine was staying in and proceeded to arrest and subsequently torture him and his colleagues. 

During his presidential campaign, supporters of Wine have continued to face police violence. In November, 54 people were killed as supporters called for the release of Wine from detention. Wine had been arrested at a campaign rally. Ugandan security forces have routinely prevented Wine from attending his campaign rallies and the president has prevented Wine from appearing on TV and radio stations.  

Recently, the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, publicly condemned tactics within Uganda to suppress free and fair elections. In addition, Eliot Engel, the chairperson of the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs, requested that the US impose sanctions on several Ugandan security officials in response to “a worsening of human rights in the country.” Wine stated that he hopes for an overwhelming turnout at the ballot box to make it difficult for Museveni to tamper with the election. 

There are serious doubts as to whether Uganda can legitimately hold a free and fair election given the overwhelming control that Museveni wields over public institutions. In November 2020, the European Union (EU) announced it would not deploy an observer mission to monitor the Ugandan elections due to the Ugandan government’s refusal to implement previous EU recommendations designed to “make the poll body more independent” and result in the “elimination of excessive use of force by the armed forces and more transparency in tallying.” According to Kampala-based political analyst Chrispin Kaheru, “what the EU observers do is to add an international flavour of scrutiny, that element now will not be there in 2021.” 

In order to ensure greater transparency in the upcoming elections, Bobi Wine has launched his own app called “U Vote” designed to monitor the election results and help voters ensure their votes are tallied. On January 2, 2021, during the end of year address at his home, Wine asserted that Ugandans “have experienced a lot of vote rigging for a long time and now we want to be in charge of everything.  All polling agents will just have to take a picture of the DR form and upload it there and then. We shall do our own vote tallying.”

Uganda is a nation where 80 per cent of the population is under the age of 35. For these young individuals, Bobi Wine brings a great deal of hope for a better life. Yet this demographic disparity has created a generational divide whereby Museveni is viewed as unpopular among young people, but is popular among older, rural voters who view regime change as “a hauntingly perilous idea,” still scarred from the years of turmoil that preceded Museveni. 

However, it is not certain that, if he wins, Wine would be able to deliver on his promises, or whether Wine’s victory would mean a continuation of corrupt politics.  In July 2020, one year after announcing his bid to run for president, Wine announced himself as the leader of the rebranded and previously obscure political party, the National Unity Platform (NUP). The formation of a party with such a conventional structure contradicts the spirit of Wine’s People Power movement, which is aimed at challenging conventional politics. In addition, reports indicate that Wine’s new party has engaged in transactional politics. Derrick Ssonko, a local mechanic, felt inspired to run for local councilor, “but the party ticket went to a rival who paid a bribe. He worries that the NUP is ‘old wine in new bottles’ even though everyone he knows will vote for it.” 

Furthermore, Wine’s campaign manifesto features many ambitious promises, including creating 5 million new jobs, ending political persecution, closing the income gap between rich and poor, and bringing about meaningful change in the lives of all Ugandans. But despite these bold and progressive electoral promises, it remains unclear how Bobi Wine proposes to accomplish change. Wine’s political headquarters features images of pan-African heroes like socialist leader Thomas Sankara, but he has also been known to collaborate with free-market think tanks. Wine stated that his goal is to rebuild public institutions and end decades of personalized rule, but has also said, “I don’t have a very radical programme.” 

In President Museveni’s first year in office, he published a book entitled, What’s Africa’s Problem?—in which he stated: “the problem of Africa, in general, and Uganda in particular, is not the people but leaders who want to overstay in power.”  Bobi Wine’s call for freedom, democracy, and prosperity for Ugandans represents the same political views that Museveni had once embraced long ago, but gradually, Museveni became a corrupt authoritarian leader. If Bobi Wine wins, would he be capable of ending that same cycle of authoritarianism?