Will a Biden win spell victory for American multilateralism?

The Trump administration has taken a markedly more isolationist approach to foreign policy than prior U.S. administrations. This isolationist pivot led to the US abandonment of the Trans Pacific Partnership, a unilateral withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Deal, engagement in a trade war with China, and a wavering commitment to NATO. Despite some relative successes such as the recent American-moderated normalization of relations between Israel and various Arab states, proponents of multilateralism view this isolationist stance as yet another low point in the decline of Pax Americana. In the aftermath of the American election, the potential of a Biden presidency promises a return to the multilateral status quo and, for some pundits, a possible resurgence of American power. 

However, a return to multilateral foreign policy does not simply entail addressing the changes wrought by the Trump administration. To fully understand why the challenge for a Biden administration is so great, it is important to understand that the decline of America’s image started long before Trump. Under the Bush and Obama administrations, America stayed true to its allies but angered the rest of the world by engaging in costly wars with limited public support. Trump continued the strategy of foreign intervention whilst distancing America from its allies through his populist critiques of the neoliberal world order. All of this resulted in America’s already diminished global image reaching a new low. 

The restoration of the American image through a renewed commitment to multilateralism is further complicated by the rise of China. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) promises to build vital infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa, and Europe, linking China with the world and marking a significant boost to Chinese soft power. The growing strength of Chinese influence is evident throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, with Chinese aid being readily distributed serving as a potent example. With respect to hard power, China has continued to develop its military capabilities and has also shown a willingness to threaten force to defend what it sees as key assets both within and beyond the South China Sea. Countries that once adhered to the American model of global governance now see China as a partner more willing to respect their sovereignty and styles of government while still providing aid and infrastructure as demonstrated through the BRI . The BRI has allowed China to expand its influence into regions long overlooked by American foreign policy such as Africa. China’s popularity today presents itself as an obstacle to America’s return to form as a viable and reliable global leader.

A more comprehensive approach is needed to adequately address this trend of American decline. Re-affirming a commitment to multilateralism through institutions such as NATO and the UN can only achieve so much. Even if Biden can make inroads in these respects, China’s ascension presents yet another issue for the rehabilitation of America’s multilateralist reputation. China’s growth and the BRI represents an insurmountable challenge to re-asserting American on the global stage, particularly when even a potential Biden administration currently fails to provide policies of similar scope. To this effect, there is no present and clear path forward for the Biden administration to counter China’s influence. For proponents of multilateralism, regardless of who emerges victorious on November 3rd, relief may yet still be a distant prospect.