Why Taiwanese Independence is Under its Greatest Threat in Ages

With all the global attention that is currently being paid towards the Trump administration’s aggressive actions towards their historic allies like Canada and Mexico, one country that faces increasingly dire circumstances that have been comparatively under-reported is Taiwan. For decades, Taiwan has been in a precarious security situation wherein the People’s Republic of China claims control over its territory and population of more than 23 million, with only 180 kilometres separating Taiwan from the mainland. The PRC has also increasingly stepped up reunification efforts and military pressure on the democratically governed state in recent years. As recently as March 5th 2025, Chinese Premier Li Qiang reiterated in a work report to parliament the PRC’s plans to pursue reunification in the near-future while opposing “external interference” to their efforts.

Although this aggression is nothing new for Taiwan – and the Chinese government under Xi Jinping has been ramping up its military presence and pushing for reunification for years – what is new is the sudden unreliability of its biggest ally. The United States has long been Taiwan’s chief international partner in their shared interest of keeping the PRC at bay, with the US having sold more than $50 billion in weapons to Taiwan and maintaining a steady military presence in the South China Sea. However, in the aftermath of President Trump’s abrupt and very public falling out with Ukraine and its President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in recent weeks, many in Taiwan are now beginning to question whether they too will be abandoned by the US as a military partner. 

The strategic importance of the Taiwanese technology sector, and especially its role as manufacturer of 90 per cent of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, has historically been a key deterrence against China as it incentivizes other countries to protect it. However, Trump has in the past accused Taiwan of damaging the American semiconductor business. Disagreements have also arisen regarding Taiwan’s defence spending, which is at 2.5 per cent of its 2025 government budget. This is a figure that  Trump has demanded they raise, with his Under Secretary of Defense for Policy nominee Elbridge Colby saying last week that it needs to be quadrupled to ten per cent.

Given the increase in tensions with the PRC and the sudden potential of America withdrawing support, Taiwan now finds itself in one of its most challenging times in  recent decades. It is evident that the Chinese government sees Trump’s actions with regard to Ukraine and Russia as a sign that the Americans may be abandoning some of its long-time commitments to allies around the world, which is something that would greatly benefit China’s interests. An increasingly isolationist US would pave the way for the PRC to expand its influence into regions like Europe or the Middle East. In the case of Taiwan, this represents an opening to further intensify their military pressure for reunification efforts. To this end, China has stepped up military drills in the South China Sea and their rhetoric surrounding  Taiwan has carried a noticeably tougher stance. Other PRC tactics have included threatening Taiwanese independence activists with the death penalty, and in recent days, Taiwanese officials have even considered warning its citizens against travelling to countries with strong links to China such as Laos and Cambodia. The concern is that the PRC might pressure local authorities there to take Taiwanese travellers into custody as an intimidation tactic or to interrogate them in Chinese-operated facilities. 

As these increasingly aggressive actions from the PRC represent a possibly existential security threat to Taiwan, the question remains as to how it can best preserve its independence going forward. One way they have sought to do so is by trying to increase economic ties with the US to make themselves more indispensable in the Trump administration’s eyes. In early March, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), responsible for producing the world’s most advanced semiconductors, announced a $100 million investment into five new chip fabrication plants on American soil. Maneuvers such as this demonstrate Taiwan’s strategy of leveraging its global dominance in the semiconductor industry to secure protection against its neighbours in a method known as the “silicon shield,” although increased offshoring such as with this deal risks Taiwan's hold on the industry slipping. 

Additionally, the Taiwanese government has studied Ukraine’s response to Russia’s 2022 invasion as a way to shape their own strategy in the event of a Chinese attack. Lessons they have taken include how to incorporate private companies into war efforts, securing online systems against cyberattacks, and connecting Taiwanese firms with Ukrainian ones to further boost their preparation. Even with these measures, however, Taiwan would find it extremely difficult to defend against any attack by the PRC. The state’s security relies heavily upon its relationship with the US, and should Trump decide to cut off this relationship as they have with Ukraine, the Taiwanese people would find themselves in a severe crisis. While such a scenario would have seemed impossible mere months ago, the actions of the Trump administration in recent weeks suggest that abandonment of the US’ allies in Taiwan may not be as far-fetched a possibility as previously thought.