Explainer: What will a Trump Presidency Mean for Canada’s Arctic?

Introduction

The re-election of Donald Trump for a second term as President of the United States in November 2024 has a swath of significant implications for Canada's approach to Arctic policy and its objectives. Canada's objectives in the Arctic include environmental protection, sustainable development, and the continued policy of asserting sovereignty over contested parts of its territory. As part of his campaign, President elect Donald Trump's anticipated policy changes on energy exploration, rolling back environmental regulations, clawing back rebates and different approaches to China and Russia are important changes that Canada must be ready to adapt to for the upcoming presidential term. 

Energy Exploration and Environmental Concerns

During his previous term, President Trump advocated for increased oil and gas drilling in the Arctic, notably in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). His position is expected to remain while planning to reverse restrictions implemented under the Biden Administration on oil drilling and exploration in Alaska. This type of activity near Canadian arctic territories could increase the likelihood of oil spills, impact wildlife and interrupt indigenous practices on these lands. This may hinder Canada’s ability to meet its environmental policy objective in the Arctic regions. 

Climate Change Policies

President Trump's skepticism toward climate change and his previous withdrawal from the Paris Agreement indicate he may re-withdraw when taking office in January, 2025. This will negatively impact the integrity of global climate advocacy efforts. His administration's plans to roll back key climate change measures, such as those stipulated Inflation Reduction Act, 2022 and subsidies for wind power, in favor of promoting fossil fuel production. This could undermine global efforts to combat climate change. The possible shift to the Second Trump Administration’s climate policies (and lack thereof), may remain a challenge for Canada to achieve its climate change objectives as the Arctic is vulnerable to the effects of global warming. Canada may need to intensify its climate initiatives and seek new international partnerships to address the environmental challenges in the Arctic.

Sovereignty and Security and Peaceful Territorial Disputes

The increased U.S. interest in Arctic resource development under President Trump could lead to heightened activity in the region, potentially affecting Canada's sovereignty claims. The U.S. focus on expanding oil and gas exploration may necessitate Canada to reinforce its presence and assert its territorial rights in the Arctic. Additionally, the re-election of President Trump has prompted Canada to finalize its Arctic foreign policy with Inuit leaders, aiming to address challenges from the U.S., China, and Russia. Donald Trump, under the last administration, pressured the Federal Government to honour its commitment to maintaining sovereignty and security. In the Arctic, Canada has made a commitment to spend over $30 Billion on NORAD modernization.

Arctic Land and Sea Claims

As two arctic nations, Canada and the US have two ongoing territorial disputes that could under Donald Trump further strain the relationship. Canada and the US have different positions on the sovereignty of the Northwest Passage (NWP). Canada claims the NWP to be Canadian territory while the US labels the NWP as an international strait for trade. Although each time the US does cross the NWP they do seek permission however, their policy may change in the future.

The other territorial dispute between Canada and the US is the overlapping boundary dispute on the maritime boundary in the Beaufort Sea and the continental shelf in the Central Arctic Ocean. As the arctic continues to become an increasingly important strategic area the US and Canada have agreed to Create the Joint Task Force to Negotiate the Beaufort Sea Boundary. Although this has been established, President Trump may leverage this task-force to create an unfair result or eliminate the task force. In doing this, it also may rescind its letter to the United Nations Convention of the Law on the Sea (UNCLOS) that makes no objections to Canada’s request for the continental shelf. This could prove to be problematic for achieving Canada’s goal of maintaining its arctic sovereignty. 

Looking Ahead: January 20, 2025

The divergence in Arctic policies between Canada and the U.S. under President Trump may strain diplomatic relations. Canada's commitment to environmental protection and sustainable development contrasts with the U.S. emphasis on resource exploitation. This could lead to disagreements in international forums and necessitate diplomatic efforts to manage bilateral relations effectively. 

On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States. Regardless of Trump’s approach to diplomacy, Canada’s Prime Minister must be ready to maintain our strong relationship with the US and continue to prepare for a smooth transition of power.