Infamous Mexican drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman was convicted in Brooklyn, New York on February 12th, after a two and a half month long trial that exposed mass corruption in all echelons of the Mexican state.  The drug lord was the leader of the murderous Sinaloa Cartel, which has been described by the US Justice Department as “one of the world’s most prolific, violent and powerful drug cartels.” El Chapo was found guilty of engaging in a continuing criminal enterprise, among nine other drug-related charges, which carries a mandatory sentence of life in prison. El Chapo’s downfall has been hailed as a massive victory for the war on drugs. But while the world may never see another El Chapo, his imprisonment does not signal the end of Sinaloa, or the US-Mexico drug trade more broadly.

Even with its kingpin out of the picture, the Sinaloa cartel—based in the Mexican state of the same name—continues to prosper. Sinaloa still supplies the lion’s share of American drug markets; the multi-drug shipment recently detected at the United States border is enough to suggest that business is running as usual. In the two years since El Chapo was extradited to the US, drug production in Mexico has increased and the number of drug trade-related homicides has reached an all time high. Locking up El Chapo may be a symbolic win for the Mexican and United States authorities, but Eduardo Guerrero, a security consultant in Mexico City, told the LA Timesthat incarcerating El Chapo will only incite more drug-related violence in Mexico.

A 2018 study by Lindo and Padilla-Romo interrogates the efficacy of the “kingpin strategy”—targeting high-ranked members of criminal organizations—in reducing drug trade-fueled violence in Mexico. They found that crackdowns on cartel leaders have widely destabilizing effects. This is because targeting kingpins weakens incumbent cartels, which provokes rival organizations to vie for influence and territorial control. Within the targeted drug trafficking organization, members begin to fight one another in an effort to fill the newly vacant top position. Kingpin captures can be counter-productive to the objective of reducing violence, and can ultimately lead to increasing homicide rates.

Back in Mexico, Lindo and Padilla-Romo’s predictions seem to be holding true. When El Chapo was extradited to the United States in 2017, he left behind a power vacuum—and three contenders emerged to take his place: Damaso Lopez Nunez, a colleague of El Chapo’s and a prominent member of the cartel; Jesus Alfredo and Ivan Archivaldo, El Chapo’s sons, and Aureliano “El Guano” Guzman, El Chapo’s brother. The battle for leadership over the Sinaloa cartel continues. Meanwhile, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, an old accomplice of El Chapo’s, handles the daily management of the cartel, but his tenure is likely to be short-lived given his old age and deteriorating health. What’s more, at El Chapo’s trial, defense lawyers argued that Zambada framed El Chapo so that he could assume control of the cartel, further complicating the new kingpin’s role in the cartel.

Meanwhile, amid the chaos within Sinaloa’s upper ranks, the cartel’s major rival, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), has emerged as a powerful force in the Mexican drug trade. Led by the cunning and ruthless El Mencho, now the “most wanted drug lord on the planet”, CJNG has been rapidly growing since it broke off from Sinaloa in 2010. Today, the cartel violently controls the Jalisco state, and is said to operate more like a paramilitary organization than a criminal gang.

Sinaloa’s mission has largely focused on transporting drugs across the US-Mexico border, which meant El Chapo tried to maintain peaceful relations with the locals in the areas. Conversely, CJNG derives power through controlling locals with intimidation and fear, and has a reputation of being especially violent. Prosecuting the father of the Sinaloa cartel has created space for CJNG to thrive, and as long as Sinaloa is plagued by infighting, it’s more violent younger brother will become more and more powerful.

On February 20th, VICE reported that jurors broke orders and consulted news about the El Chapo case during the trial. In response to this alleged misconduct, El Chapo’s attorneys have claimed at they will be seeking a retrial. Whether or not a retrial is granted, El Chapo’s fate is likely to remain the same. After 30 years of efforts by American and Mexican authorities and billions of dollars spent, El Chapo is behind bars. But back home, the drug war continues. El Chapo’s prosecution has disrupted the dynamics within the Sinaloa cartel and the broader structure of the drug trade.

Even with the incarceration of a kingpin, the drug trade is a market with incredibly high stakes, wherein instability often goes hand-in-hand with bloodshed.

Photo Source: WikiCommons