What Does a Second Trump Presidency Mean for Europe?

In the wake of Donald Trump’s re-election to the office of President of the United States on November 5th, much of the media coverage in North America has been centred on how Americans and Canadians are preparing for his return to the highest office. Concerns over what his second term will mean for the economy, climate change, groups like migrants, the LGBTQ+ community, or the poor, and many other issues have dominated news cycles. One region which will also be heavily affected by the next four years of Trump, however, is Europe, where ties with the U.S. have historically always been important. In terms of trade, the European Union is the US’ top commercial partner with $1.3 trillion worth of goods and services being traded between them in 2022. This means that the EU far outpaces Canada, Mexico, and China as the US’ largest trading partner. Likewise, the US is the EU’s top trading partner and makes up 19.7 per cent of the EU’s trade in goods, ahead of 13.1 per cent with the United Kingdom. On the security side, 23 of the 27 EU nations are also members of NATO and thus have close-knit relationships with the US in countering global security threats like China and Russia. This relationship is especially pressing given the war that continues raging in the Eastern European flank between Russia and Ukraine.

With how tightly intertwined the US and Europe are, the results of the American election has meant that European leaders are now bracing for Trump to take office. The expectation is that Trump’s return will bring even more tumultuous times to Europe, with fears that his administration will begin a trade war with both the EU and China as part of his economic policy. In the automotive sector, for instance, Trump has floated a 10 per cent tariff on European goods which, if implemented, would devastate the German economy as key automakers like Volkswagen rely on the US as primary export markets for their vehicles. While Trump’s America First policies would likely negatively affect much of the world’s economies, including the US, its effects on Europe would be especially heavily felt. Additionally, millions of jobs on both sides of the Atlantic would be impacted by these policies. In Germany, for one, 780,000 workers are employed in the automotive industry, and these jobs would be in danger of being moved abroad if tariffs are levied against the country.

Regarding NATO and Russia, Trump’s election will also have important ramifications for how Europe fares in the next four years. On the NATO side, Trump has taken a hard line against countries who do not meet the two per cent of GDP threshold on defence spending. He has vowed that he will not militarily help NATO allies that fall short of that target and even threatened to leave the military alliance entirely. This, combined with concerns that Trump will attempt to end the war in Ukraine by forcing a peace deal with favourable terms for Russia, has left many of the US’ European allies unsure if they can rely on the Americans for their own security going forward. In response to both Russian aggression and now a reality where the US is no longer a reliable defence partner, many European countries have radically ramped up their defence spending. Amongst European NATO countries, defence spending has steadily risen over the last few years with 18 alliance nations now on track to hit the two per cent of GDP goal. This is a dramatic increase from the three that did hit this target  back in 2014.

Perhaps most significantly, however, is that the impending second Trump presidency, with the upheaval it will likely bring, has the potential to encourage European unity. Following Trump’s victory three weeks ago, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz both reiterated the need for the EU to stand together in the expected return to an isolationist and protectionist US. The UK, under the leadership of a Labour government, has also recently pushed for a reset of relationships with the EU with Prime Minister Keir Starmer seeking cooperation on issues of defence, climate change, and economic growth. This signals that many in Europe recognize the need for the continent to stick together now that the US is returning to a Trump presidency, but it remains to be seen if the move towards European solidarity will transpire. It is especially concerning as countries like France and Germany face domestic challenges of their own with both Macron and Scholz leading weak governments and political infighting in the EU being rampant. If Europe is to weather the challenge of four more years of Trump and the economic and security challenges he will bring, closer cooperation and more stability is the only path forward.