Trump 2020: new year, same president

On December 18th, U.S. President Donald Trump was impeached by the Democratic-led House of Representatives. Following the end of a relatively quiet holiday season, some important developments with respect to the impeachment trial are likely to occur in the coming weeks as each of the respective parties involved (hopefully) prioritize a quick trial in the interest of other pressing matters. If you’ve forgotten all about Donald Trump over the holidays, read on and remind yourself of some important details regarding his impeachment – from the formal definition and application of impeachment in the U.S., to its implications for the 2020 Presidential election. 

WHAT IS IMPEACHMENT?

Impeachment is the process by which a legislative body levels charges against a government official. Impeachment does not in itself remove the official definitively from office – it is simply the statement of charges against that official.

Impeachable offenses are not limited to criminal conduct, and include: treason, bribery, “high crimes and misdemeanours,” threats to the state, and violations of public trust. 

Under U.S. constitutional law, the federal impeachment process involves 3 steps: 

(1) Congress conducts an investigation prior to making formal allegations against an official; 

(2) The House of Representatives holds a vote to pass the articles of impeachment submitted by Congress; 

(3) and, the Senate holds an impeachment trial, which concludes with an acquittal, or conviction and removal from office.

Following the vote to impeach, the House must select its “managers,” who act as prosecutors, while the impeachment trial itself is overseen by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. Senators act as jurors, and ultimately decide the outcome of the trial.

At least 2/3 of the Senate (67 Senators) needs to vote guilty on at least one article of impeachment in order to have the President removed from office. If this happens, the sitting Vice President takes over.

Only two other U.S. presidents have ever been impeached: Andrew Johnson in 1868, and Bill Clinton in 1998. Richard Nixon resigned during impeachment proceedings, before a vote to impeach was held. Neither Johnson nor Clinton were convicted or subsequently removed from office.

WHY WAS PRESIDENT TRUMP IMPEACHED?

During a July 25 phone call between Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, President Trump pressed Zelensky to investigate Ukraine’s role in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as Joe Biden’s conduct during an investigation into his son Hunter’s business dealings in Ukraine. Following the phone call, Trump ordered that $391 million worth of military aid be temporarily withheld from Ukraine. 

Trump’s claim is that Joe Biden, while Vice President, had prevented a Ukrainian prosecutor from looking into a gas company that had Hunter on its board. 

The President’s defenders insist that the he did not intend to smear Biden for his own interests and that he had legitimate concerns over corruption, and he was conducting business in his own way. Others see Trump’s actions as a blatant effort to tarnish the image of a political rival before the 2020 presidential election.

It is worth noting that Ukrainian officials were aware of the delayed aid, and that Trump only released the funds after a whistleblower had complained about his behaviour. 

So far, there has been no evidence of any wrongdoing by the Bidens.

TRUMP ON TRIAL

The House of Representatives subsequently presented two articles of impeachment against President Trump: 

(1) The President abused his power by pressing Ukraine to dig up dirt on Joe Biden;

(2) and, he obstructed Congress by insisting that key witnesses cannot testify.

Taken together, the two articles charge that the President placed his private political interests above U.S. national security, above the integrity of U.S. elections, and above the U.S. system of checks and balances.

On December 18, the Democratic-led House of Representatives voted to impeach the President, with 228 out of 231 Democrats voting in favour of both articles. All Republican representatives voted against the articles. 

Following the vote to impeach, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was very coy about when she plans to send the articles of impeachment to the Senate, which must happen before any trial can take place. U.S. constitutional law does not specify when the articles of impeachment should be submitted, but they are typically sent immediately following the vote to impeach.

Pelosi’s decision to withhold the articles of impeachment is unprecedented.

WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW?

Not a whole lot.

Congress has been on holiday since the House vote was held, and Trump’s impeachment is currently in a state of limbo as Pelosi holds onto the articles of impeachment. Once the articles are sent to the Republican-led Senate, it is up to Senate Republicans to set trial terms that are mutually agreed upon by both parties.

Pelosi can sit on the articles of impeachment indefinitely, and it appears as though she is trying to exercise some leverage over the process by refusing to send over the articles of impeachment until the Senate agrees to have certain key witnesses present at the trial, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and former National Security advisor John Bolton.   

Polls show that the public is evenly split on impeachment, while President Trump’s approval ratings have gone up since impeachment proceedings began.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

Typically, the House would select their trial managers and send the articles of impeachment directly to the Senate, which would then begin the impeachment trial.

But this is not a typical impeachment, fitting for an a-typical President.

Regardless of when the trial is held, the President will almost certainly be acquitted. 

No president has ever been removed from office following impeachment, and it is unlikely that President Trump will be the first. All Republican representatives voted against impeachment in the House, and votes following the trial are expected to reflect the same partisan division. 

Trump’s impeachment is likely to leave voters more divided than ever. If anything, the Democrats may have won the election for President Trump by playing right into his hands. From the moment Trump was inaugurated, his opponents have been on a mission to tarnish his reputation in any way possible, and the case for impeachment truly began the moment he was sworn in. This impeachment trial will play perfectly into his “witch hunt” narrative; providing him the opportunity to spend his entire 2020 campaign bashing the “do-nothing-Democrats” and their crusade — and his voters will probably listen.

Impeachment was designed to be a rarely implemented, democratic check on the President’s power – not a partisan tool. This impeachment trial, and its partisan divide, will damage the legitimacy of future indictments. The threshold for removal will rise, and oversight will be weaker. The most likely outcome of these impeachment proceedings? Trump will not be removed from office, he will not step down, and he will win in 2020. 

Happy New Year!