The impact of climate change on farmer-herder conflicts in Nigeria

The conflicts between farmers and herders in Nigeria are prime examples of the environmental and security challenges posed by a changing global climate. In Nigeria, when the northern region becomes arid and without vegetation, semi-nomadic pastoralists seasonally migrate south in search of greener pastures and clean water. Farmers and pastoralists have historically shared a symbiotic relationship during this migration season, with farmers providing leftover crop for cattle, and pastoralists’ cattle providing fertilizer for the farmers’ fields. However, as climate change has increasingly constricted the availability of clean water and pastures in the north, pastoralists have been forced to travel further south for extended periods of time. As the migration of pastoralists have expanded both temporally and geographically, farmer-herder conflicts in the form of verbal disputes, theft of resources, and relatively large-scale armed conflicts, have increased exponentially in number and severity. These trends in agricultural and spatial scarcity, also observed in other countries along the Sahel, are expected to worsen as the symptoms of climate change continue to intensify.

The enduring economic success of Nigeria, and many other countries in the region, hinges on long-term agricultural sustainability. Agriculture plays a vital role in the Nigerian economy, with roughly two-thirds of the labor force working in the sector.[1] The industry also accounts for roughly 20 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP, and is an important source of revenue for the Nigerian government.[2] Stability must be provided to ensure the successful growth of the Nigerian economy, which is pertinent at a time when the country is seeking to diversify its assets in an effort to reduce its dependence on the oil sector. Compounding the negative consequences of climate change on the agricultural sector is Nigeria’s growing population, which at 191 million is the largest in Africa. It is set to surpass the United States and become the third most populous country in the world by 2050. Such a large population will undoubtedly continue to place a greater strain on existing resources and subsequently generate further conflict.

One of the ways in which the Nigerian government can combat the threat posed by climate change and reduce farmer-herder conflict is through increased investment in the Great Green Wall Initiative. The Great Green Wall Initiative is a pan-African movement that enables communities to develop and implement environmentally sustainable projects.[3] One of its primary goals is to defend the semi-arid Sahel region and its inhabitants from the expansion of the Sahara Desert, by planting millions of shrubs and trees to form a protective wall along the perimeter of the desert. The success of the project would not only enable herders to graze in northern Nigeria for greater periods of time and therefore reduce competition over resources in the south, but also serve as a global model for natural, cooperative, climate change resilience efforts. Moreover, it would also provide farmers and herders with an opportunity to cooperate and work towards a common goal, which would further reduce tensions between the two groups.

The farmer-herder conflicts in Nigeria are a preview of the economic, security and environmental risks posed by climate change. Further migration and displacement stemming from climate change is a global trend that is likely to increase in intensity in the coming decades. While resource scarcity and disputes in land use management are issues that are mostly endemic to the developing world, they are primed to escalate to a global scale. It is imperative that efforts are undertaken now to develop measures to mitigate the negative consequences of climate change and reduce conflicts between farmers and herders in not only Nigeria, but across the entire region.