In March of 2011, peaceful protests erupted in Syria following a series of uprisings against oppressive regimes throughout the Middle East and North Africa, which would later come to be known as the “Arab Spring.”

Almost 9 years later, 465,000 Syrians have been killed, over a million injured, and some 12 million – half of the country’s prewar population – have been displaced as a result of the ongoing armed conflict between rebel groups and Syrian government forces loyal to the Assad regime.

The already bloody and increasingly complex conflict recently entered a new phase as Syrian government forces – backed by Russian air power – make their final push against what remains of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and other rebel groups holding Syria’s northwestern Idlib province.

THE BATTLE FOR IDLIB

Idlib fell to opposition forces in mid-2015, with many adjacent towns being the first to protest against the Assad regime in early 2011. The province – along with parts of neighbouring Hama and Aleppo – is the last opposition-held stronghold in the country, and the only de-escalation zone that remains out of Assad’s control.

Having already recaptured most key regions in Syria, the Assad regime is close to regaining territorial control over the entire country, and is now focused on securing the strategically important M4 and M5 highways linking Aleppo, Latakia, and Damascus.

This escalation has led to accusations from Turkey against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for violating the terms of a multilateral ceasefire agreement signed with Russia and Iran in 2018. Earlier this month, the conflict escalated further after 13 Turkish troops were killed by Syrian government forces, leading to Ankara’s decision to increase their military presence in Idlib.

Turkish and Russian officials met earlier this week in order to discourage any further military action from Turkey, and to avoid the possibility of a direct confrontation with Russian forces.

According to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, talks with Russia failed to achieve the “desired result,” and that a Turkish operation in Idlib is “imminent.”

Two Turkish soldiers were killed in Syrian government air raids on  Thursday morning – a day after President Erdogan’s announcement was made. More than 50 Syrian military personnel were killed in retaliation.

Rebel fighters have been backed by Turkey since the early stages of the war, which currently hosts 3.6 million Syrian refugees – more than any other country.

Many of Idlib’s residents are already displaced having come to Idlib in order to escape conflict. The surge in fighting has forced thousands to leave their homes, seeking safety in informal camps and settlements in northwestern Syria. 

The Syrian government offensive to capture Idlib has caused the single largest civilian displacement of the entire nine-year conflict, with nearly 900,000 people having already been displaced. The UN has said that the offensive and its resulting exodus has the potential to cause “the largest human catastrophe of the 21st century,” citing conditions in civilian camps, and deliberate attacks on civilians around Idlib province.

THE BATTLE FOR SYRIA

What began as a relatively peaceful uprising between an oppressed population and a military regime – fuelled by anger over the Syrian government’s brutal killing of a 13 year old boy, and encouraged by successful uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt – has spiralled out of control into a bloody, multidimensional struggle for power between regional and domestic powers, complicated further by ethnic and religious conflict, sectarian divides, and foreign influence.

The result is a Syrian state that has been fractured beyond repair.

The Assad regime – and by proxy, the Syrian government – has lost its legitimacy and can effectively abandon any hopes of regaining trust over the population that remains in Syria.

The Syrian state has become a battleground for both regional and domestic stakeholders, and regardless of Assad’s victory over rebel forces, the fight over Syria’s territory is likely to resume long after Idlib is secured – with the potential to escalate further as the threat of direct foreign involvement looms large. The intensifying struggle over regional dominance between Iran and several Arab states – most notably Saudi Arabia – and the increasingly fragile partnership between Russia and Turkey, complicate matters even further.

More than half of Syria’s prewar population has left their homeland, and those that remain will be left without the infrastructure, institutions, and effective government that will be vital to rebuilding Syria after the conflict has ended.

The battle for Idlib may be the final major confrontation between the Assad regime and rebel forces, but it is unlikely to be the final conflict of Syria’s war. Instead it seems poised to become a mere chapter in an already complex story of internal realignments, exacerbated further by regional and international interests.