South African election results reflect a nation in crisis

South Africa’s municipal elections on November 1st ended with a startling result: a record-low turnout of only 45.8 percent, down over 12 percentage points from 2016. This dip was  shocking for a country that once struggled so hard for democracy.

However, it was entirely unsurprising, as trust in the Rainbow Nation’s institutions is plummeting. South Africans do not hold optimistic views of their economic prospects. 

South Africa’s three largest political parties also came away disappointed with their results. The African National Congress (ANC) – the party of Nelson Mandela which has governed since 1994 – dropped below 50 percent of the popular vote for the first time in a free election. The party has received criticism in years recent for corruption and incompetence. But the ANC’s central role in the struggle against apartheid still garners much goodwill amongst the South African public, though this shrinks year by year. 

Meanwhile, the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) garnered just under 22 percent of the vote. This result was a decline of over five percentage points since 2016. The party, which governs the Western Cape Province, including Cape Town, is widely perceived as a party of white privilege and minority interests. And the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), a far-left party that often behaves more like the far-right, earned far less of the vote than hoped. It only won 10 percent of the vote after opinion polls suggested it might reach as high as 15 percent. Instead, many voters offered their support to a plethora of minor parties, from the Inkatha Freedom Party, whose stronghold is in KwaZulu-Natal, to the Afrikaner-interests Freedom Front Plus and the liberal ActionSA. 

Although some districts changed hands and coalitions will be an increasingly important part of South African governance in years to come, the main takeaway is the sense of malaise that hangs in the South African air. This election took place in the context of a decline in the nation’s prospects. South Africa has seen slow economic growth since 2009, while government policies have been unable to reduce economic inequality. Indeed, old racial wealth gaps between Black, White, Indian, and Coloured South Africans persist today. Moreover, the crime rate is out of control. Youth unemployment is at 74 percent. And South Africans have faced intermittent rolling electrical grid blackouts over the past decade. 

That’s to say nothing about South Africa’s poor response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The ANC has implemented long, harsh lockdowns that did not prevent one of the highest mortality rates on the African continent. This harm has been compounded by a weak vaccine rollout and an even weaker economic recovery. 

These tensions reached an ugly apex in July 2021, when civil unrest tore through the KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng provinces. Footage from those riots, and the accompanying racial tensions, shocked the world. 

Many South African voters expressed their discontent with the political class on November 1 by voting for minor parties or by staying home entirely. The public is increasingly upset with the ANC’s ineffectiveness, but the opposition is fragmented. Neither the DA, the EFF, nor the plethora of minor parties that grew in popularity this year have an appeal wide enough to unite the South African opposition. The result, unfortunately, is stagnation. These trends do not show any signs of reversing in the years ahead. 

None of this is to say that South Africa faces immediate collapse. Instead, it is likely to continue to experience a long period of sluggishness as it continues to deal with the legacies of apartheid and ongoing incompetence in government. The leading political parties need to get their acts together. The ANC must immediately take drastic action to root out corruption and alter destructive economic policies. But this would require brave actions from President Cyril Ramaphosa, which is unlikely. Some worry that internal strife may eventually break up the ANC into several competing political factions. If this happens, it would be impossible to predict what shape South African politics would take afterward. However, if the first post-ANC government embraces a racialism of the sort espoused by the EFF, the situation will likely further deteriorate. 

Meanwhile, the DA must make meaningful moves to appeal to the majority of Black South Africans and better acknowledge the ongoing legacies of apartheid in its policies. Whether or not the ANC and DA can move outside their comfortable bubbles is another story. The next South African general election is three years away, and a lot could go right – or wrong – in that time.