In a federal election in the Central African Republic (CAR) on December 27, 2020, incumbent President Faustin-Archange Touadéra secured a second term. But in the aftermath of the vote, violence has engulfed the country, pitting the government against anti-Touadéra rebel groups. The situation is further complicated by the interference of foreign states with geopolitical interests in the CAR, including Chad, France, Russia, and Rwanda. Despite other states recognizing Touadéra as the victor, rebels have marched on the capital of Bangui, and by the end of January more than 200,000 people had fled their homes. There are signs that the post-election violence may be devolving into a proxy war between France and Russia.

The roots of this conflict began in 2003, when François Bozizé became the president of the CAR amid a coup backed by France. In 2013, Bozizé was ousted from power and fled the CAR in exile. He returned in 2019 and announced his intent to run in the 2020 election and once again had the backing of France. The current instability in the CAR started when Bozizé’s candidacy was banned by the CAR’s top court, mere days ahead of the election. Meanwhile rebels linked to Bozizé launched attacks on government forces which have intensified in the wake of Touadéra’s re-election. 

The Touadéra government is closely linked to Russia, which has forged deep connections in the CAR in recent years. Russia’s presence in the country consists of both private military contractors and involvement in the UN peacekeeping operation MINUSCA. France has grown increasingly concerned about the level of Russian influence in the CAR, which has escalated in recent years as France has taken a hands-off approach to its former colony. Despite both France and Russia officially backing Touadéra’s victory, covert French support of Bozizé points to a proxy war for power and influence in Central Africa between France and Russia.

In the lead up to the election, Facebook removed networks of accounts originating from both France and Russia that sought to convey propaganda supporting each side. France has increasingly perceived the deepening relationship between Touadéra and Russia as a threat to French interests; the Facebook accounts operating in the CAR espoused anti-Russian propaganda and were linked back to the French military. The French accounts posted messages such as, “the main destabilizer in Central African Republic is Russian Mercenaries! They are the real thieves!!!” At the same time, Russian-linked accounts, including the Russian private military contractor Wagner Group, posted, “I hope that thanks to his efforts to restore peace to the country, our children and the next generation will have a better life than those who saw the Central African Republic being ravaged by the tyrants. Pray for that.” Russia views the CAR as a central location through which to expand economic ventures into resource-rich countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and is already allied with nearby Rwanda. France seeks to maintain its historical presence in its former colonies and prevent outside influence.

Regardless of the recognition of Touadéra’s victory by France and Russia, both states have competing interests in the CAR as illustrated by their respective disinformation campaigns. Although CAR troops held off rebels from Bangui, Touadéra has stated that he plans to fight back, making an escalation of the conflict imminent. As the situation in CAR worsens, competing attempts by France and Russia to secure influence have the potential to increase the toll of the war.