The student-led protests in Thailand that started last year have evolved into massive popular demonstrations, with tens of thousands taking to the streets to demand the resignation of the current government led by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha, the adoption of a new constitution, and the reformation of the monarchy. The protests began soon after the pro-democracy Future Forward Party (FFP), which was critical of the current government, was dissolved by the Thai Constitutional Court on questionable legal grounds. The initial backlash was directed at the prime minister, who gained control of the government after a coup d’état in 2014 and has since won an election held under controversial circumstances in 2019. 

The protests stopped after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and restrictions on public gatherings were enforced. Demonstrations resumed in June 2020 when pro-democracy activist Wanchalearm Satsaksit was reported missing, allegedly kidnapped by the Thai state. Criticism of the monarchy has grown in recent months, fueled by King Vajiralongkorn’s decision to appropriate Crown wealth for himself. This call to reform the monarchy has broken a traditional taboo as the Thai royal family is protected from criticism by one of the world’s strictest lèse majesté laws, the violation of which is punishable by up to 15 years in jail. 

Mass protests in the following months culminated in a state of emergency being declared on October 14, followed by a police crackdown on protesters two days later. Further unrest followed in November, with at least 55 people injured in one such protest. The lèse majesté law was also enforced for the first time in more than two years to summon five pro-democracy leaders to the police. The government’s harsh reaction implies that it has run out of patience as the protesters show no sign of being deterred. 

Since the King’s return to Thailand from his general residence in Germany, fears of a more brutal crackdown have increased. However, an escalation of violence and the targeted persecution of students and activists may sway public opinion against the monarchy. Protestors have also been one step ahead of the government, using social media networks, such as the messaging app Telegram, to organize protests at short notice, taking such cues from their counterparts in Hong Kong. Facebook initially banned the anti-government page “Royalist Marketplace” at the behest of the Thai government but soon had to reverse its decision after international backlash. Twitter has taken a more sympathetic stance toward protestors, shutting down over 1000 accounts linked to the Thai Army for spreading fake news and propaganda. 

Although it is believed that these protests enjoy broader and more dedicated support than those of previous years, it is unlikely that the monarchy will be abolished or even reformed. Thailand’s military, economy, and political system are closely intertwined with the monarchy. Even if Prime Minister Prayuth were to resign, someone else with similar military and monarchist support would likely replace him. Thus, these two of the protestors’ three demands are unlikely to be fulfilled. As for constitutional reform, the government has indicated that it is open to some changes, with the parliament even appointing a constitution-drafting committee. This enables the current government to claim that they are listening to the people. This decision, however, has not appeased the voters and has only fueled more protests. Moreover, the process of amending the constitution is notoriously slow. For example, the current constitution was finally adopted five years after the 1992 civil uprising against the military, also known as “Black May.”

Whatever decision the Thai government comes to in the future, it must reach a compromise with the public. The largely tourism-dependent economy of the South-East Asian nation has suffered severely during the COVID-19 pandemic. Public suffering caused by this burgeoning economic crisis will likely spill over and merge with the protestors’ demands for change in the country, further intensifying demonstrations and increasing the risk of violence.