DPP Victory in Taiwan Marred by Hung Legislature

The Republic of China, commonly referred to as Taiwan, has recently concluded its presidential and legislative elections this year on January 14th. Unsurprisingly, it mostly proceeded as a showdown between the two largest parties, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT), although the new Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) called on voters to reject the “Blue-Green” – referring to DPP and KMT party colours – dichotomy. DPP candidates Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim won handily over their competitors, confirming polling trends that consistently placed the party ahead. They won around 5.5 million votes (40.05%), more than a million votes above the KMT’s Hou Yu-ih and Jaw Shau-kong who came in second by winning 4.6 million votes (33.49%). The presidential election, however, was remarkable in that the DPP won a third presidential term, defying an “eight-year curse” in Taiwanese politics where the presidency consistently switched hands between the KMT and DPP after eight years. In this sense, Lai and Hsiao’s victory shattered the opposition’s narrative that voters desired a party switch and wanted someone else in charge.

However, the same cannot be said for the legislative election. Despite the broad support for the DPP’s presidential ticket, it did not translate into a majority of seats in the legislature. In fact, none of the three competing parties crossed the majority threshold of 57 seats in the Legislative Yuan. The KMT won 52 seats, followed by the DPP with 51 and the TPP with 8, along with 2 independents. This allows the TPP to play the role of a “critical minority” in any legislative efforts by either party. Although Lai has declared that he would pursue a more transparent and non-partisan politics by cooperating with opposition parties where needed and including talent from across the aisle, others worry that a hung legislature would mean weaker governance and political stasis.

Meanwhile, the election has taken on additional meaning as international media sought to interpret the significance of its results, with many viewing the election through the lens of Cross-Strait relations and broader US-China relations. For example, a Reuters headline described the result as a “rebuff” of China and a strong rejection of “Chinese pressure”, while the BBC noted China’s anger at the results and its disdain towards Lai and the DPP, with whom it has refused to negotiate since Lai’s predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, took office as president in 2016. These and other reports posit Cross-Strait relations as the core political issue and promote an image of defiant Taiwanese who, growing increasingly distant from China and coming to embrace a separate Taiwanese identity, are resolved to defend the de facto independence and sovereignty of their democratic homeland. The DPP’s unprecedented third term is a watershed moment representing the rejection of any political identification with mainland China.

Other publications disagreed with this assessment. A commentary piece on CNA argues that the results actually reflect the opposite tendency, that China was not the biggest electoral concern. In the post-Covid period, domestic issues such as the cost of living and housing were taking centre stage. In contrast, Chinese pressure had always been around and has become normalised, thus reducing the electoral impact of Cross-Strait relations as a political issue. The Chinese-language Lianhe Zaobao wrote on the crucial role of the youth vote in determining the outcome, claiming that both the DPP and KMT lost out on the youth who felt alienated during the pandemic years amidst high housing costs and other issues. CNN’s interviews with Taiwanese youth show that many believe the status quo of Cross-Strait relations will not change in the short term, hence making the China issue less important and breeding a dislike towards the DPP and KMT whom they view as overly ideological. This is seemingly corroborated by the DPP’s electoral record which shows a steady bleeding of legislative seats since 2016, many of which have gone to the KMT. Framed this way, the election outcome represents not the defiant rejection of China’s unification project but a pragmatic focus on local issues that have long been ignored.

What then explains the disparity in news reporting on the Taiwanese election? One reason is that the former option of highlighting a third DPP victory in the face of Chinese threats makes for exciting storytelling, especially when Western relations with China have become less friendly. Taiwan’s status as an underrepresented democracy wins sympathy points from other democracies, a fact the DPP knew well enough to frame the election as one between democracy or autocracy. Unable to resist the allure of a good underdog story, many Western outlets thus emphasise Lai’s win while expressing concern at the DPP’s inability to win a legislative majority. However, the effect of this is to project their own anxieties about Cross-Strait relations into the election, promoting an image that does not necessarily exist within the electorate themselves. Perhaps the election’s true significance is that even in Taiwan whose legal and political status remains in limbo, its voters are still regular people that want stable living.